No, Steve Jobs Is No Longer MC-ing The Apple Story 9/23/13
Note: the following is excerpted from the September 13th issue of Nate’s Notes, but since it does a great job of capturing the sentiment of the opening quote used in that issue (in bold below), we are posting it again now for non-subscribers as well… and, yes – Apple is still considered a strong buy under $425 and buy under $500.
Successful investing can defined as “having others see your point… later.”
When it comes to Apple these days, all one has to do is look at what the company is actually doing and compare it with what the analysts are saying it is (or isn’t) doing to realize that virtually everyone on Wall Street is still deep in the throes of depression when it comes to accepting the loss of Steve Jobs.
Sadly (very sadly, in fact), there will never be another “One more thing…” delivered by the magnificent magician we all knew was capable of keeping a trick up his sleeve until just the right moment and then springing it on the audience (and the world!) in a manner that would always make all but the most stubborn of critics say “Wow! That’s pretty flippin’ cool!”
However, one of the nice things about the stock market is that even though emotions tend to drive stock prices over the short-term, fundamentals are what ultimately influence prices over the long-haul… and this means that, as long-term investors, the odds are skewed pretty heavily in our favor as long as we can avoid getting sucked into the day-to-day psychology of the market and instead stay focused on what’s really going on with the companies we are invested in.
As mentioned above, because analysts are no longer getting “the Steve Jobs buzz” they used to get when Apple would introduce new products, it seems they are, across the board, confusing the lack of this “mega tingle” with a lack of progress and strategic positioning by the company… and, as a result of the 25-point slide we saw in the stock earlier this week as everyone rushed for the exits in response to the “disappointing” media event on Tuesday, their inability to see the big picture is creating what I believe is a “no-brainer” investment opportunity for us.
I’ve discussed the situation at Apple a number of times already this year, but because I want to make sure as many of you as possible are able to get in on this opportunity while it is still available, I am pounding the table again this month, encouraging you to make Apple one of your largest positions.
In fact, just to help distract you from all the depressing “but this isn’t how Steve Jobs used to make us feel, so it can’t be good!” [my translation] press that is being heaped on Apple lately, I actually thought about recommending “a new company getting into the smart phone business” this month. I was going to outline all of the strengths this new company was bringing to the table in terms of established customer base, financial strength, cutting edge technology, untapped opportunities, etc., and then (as if you wouldn’t have figured it out already), point out that I was actually describing Apple… but I’m hoping that, by now, you already get the picture!
No, we’re not going to get another “100-bagger” out of the stock at this stage of the game… but based on how things are playing out, I do think that buying it at current prices represents a very conservative way to double your money (or better) over the next two- to four years! Consequently, I am adding a few more shares to both Portfolios this month, with the caveat that IF new phone sales and acceptance of iOS7 do, in fact, prove to be disappointing later this month (always a possibility), I will have no choice but to eat some humble pie and reverse my position sometime in the future.